With US regulators looking to revise fuel economy standards amid concerns for energy security and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, research published today by the Swiss bank UBS and the British auto-engineering consultancy Ricardo plc points to combined annual diesel and hybrid gasoline vehicle sales in the US of 2.7 million by 2012.
The Ricardo/UBS research report “Is Diesel set to boom in the US?” sets out the legislative and consumer drivers of engine technology for the North American automotive market over the coming decade, as well as the many candidate technologies available for future vehicle products.
Ricardo and UBS note that at present, hybrid gasoline technology appears to be the preferred route in the US, not least due to its attraction as a visible badge of green awareness amongst higher income purchasers. Many OEMs plan to launch hybrid products in the next few years, but the report highlights that this technology faces substantial manufacturing cost penalties which Ricardo believes, unlike Toyota, are unlikely to be eroded, even in mass production.
Diesel, says the research, has a clear cost advantage over hybrid, even when fitted with the type of complex exhaust after-treatment technologies necessary to meet future, more stringent emissions regulations.
Believing that the conditions may now be right for a big acceleration in diesel sales in the North American market, Ricardo forecasts that combined diesel and hybrid gasoline will represent 15% of the US light vehicle market by 2012, with sales of diesels outstripping gasoline hybrids by 1.5 million units versus 1.2 million. UBS highlights that European manufacturers and a number of global suppliers look set to benefit from the diesel trend.
“Is the Diesel set to boom in the US?” is published by UBS in association with Ricardo plc. Copies of the report may be downloaded from the Ricardo and UBS web sites, (www.ricardo.com, www.ubs.com)
A conference call with the report’s authors will take place on Friday 25 May 2007 at 14.30 (London) and is open to the media and investors. The UK phone number given is +44 (0)20 7162 0125.
Remote Replay will be available for 7 days from 25 May 2007 on +44 (0)20 7031 4064 (Access Code: 752102).
A presentation of the report by Ricardo and UBS will also be held on 19 June 2007 at the UBS London presentation centre, 1 Finsbury Avenue, London, EC2M 2PP, UK.